September 2026 San Francisco Market Update

The short version: San Francisco just finished its strongest third quarter on record for prices, and inventory is still tight. But in the last two weeks, mortgage rates jumped about half a point, and buyers are getting pickier fast. Single-family homes in sought-after neighborhoods are still drawing multiple offers. Condos with high HOA dues are sitting, while well-priced condos in neighborhood buildings are still going into contract in under three weeks.

What changed in San Francisco this month?

Two things happened at once.

The quarter closed at record levels. According to Vanguard Properties' Q3 2026 San Francisco Market Update (SFAR MLS and BrokerMetrics data):

• Single-family median sale price: $2,000,000, up 23.1% from Q3 2025
• Condo/TIC/co-op median sale price: $1,269,000, up 16.4%
• Single-family homes sold for an average of 127.2% of list price, and 87.8% sold over asking
• Median days on market: 12 for single-family homes and 15 for condos, the fastest Q3 condo market time on record
• Single-family inventory at quarter end: 191 homes, down 21.4% from a year ago
• In September alone, the single-family median rose 10.5% over August and the condo median rose 9.9%

Then rates moved. According to Mortgage News Daily, buyers are now being quoted roughly 7.25% to 7.5%, compared with 6.75% to 7% a month ago.

That half point matters more than it sounds. On a $1,000,000 loan, it adds about $340 a month in principal and interest. The September numbers above were mostly set before that jump, so they don't show it yet. Here's what I'm seeing on the ground since.

What am I seeing with buyers?

What I'm seeing

• Homes I'm tracking are getting 3 to 8 offers, depending on the neighborhood.
• In the Sunset, well-priced single-family homes are getting 5 to 8 offers. In the spring and summer, it was more like 10 to 12. Demand is still strong, just less frantic.
• In Ingleside, Crocker Amazon, the Excelsior, Portola, and Bayview, I'm seeing around 3 offers, closing roughly $100,000 to $150,000 over asking. These are the more affordable single-family price points in the city, and those buyers feel rate increases first.
• Most buyers are still waiving all contingencies. Inventory is so tight that offers with an inspection, loan, or appraisal contingency often aren't competitive.
• On condos, buyers are walking away from high HOA dues and listings priced above what recent sales support.

The Q3 data backs up the neighborhood split. Sunset single-family homes averaged 137.9% of list price, compared with 115.8% in Excelsior/Portola and 110.3% in Bayview/Hunters Point (Vanguard Properties, SFAR MLS; neighborhood sample sizes are small).

What am I seeing with sellers?

I'm not representing a seller on an active listing right now, so I'll be straight about where this comes from: pricing conversations with homeowners thinking about selling, and watching which listings my buyers pass on.

The pattern is consistent. Homeowners are anchoring to spring prices. Buyers are anchoring to today's monthly payment. When those two don't line up, the listing sits.

Where is the market behaving differently?

By property type: condos are splitting in two. I pulled every active and pending condo listed between $1,000,000 and $1,500,000 in San Francisco on October 10, 2026 (SFAR MLS):

27 of the 33 pending condos went into contract in the last two weeks, while rates were rising. Buyers haven't stopped. They're choosing carefully.

Two notes so this is read correctly: active listings naturally skew toward slower homes, since the fast ones are already gone. And this is a snapshot of one price band, not the whole market.

By location. The slow condo inventory is concentrated in the large towers of SoMa, South Beach, and Mission Bay. The MLS district covering those areas plus the Mission, Potrero Hill, and Bernal Heights (District 9) had 46 active listings and only 8 pending, and most of those 8 were flats in the Mission and Bernal, not towers. The district covering Noe Valley, the Castro, Glen Park, and Cole Valley (District 5) had 10 active and 8 pending.

By price point. For single-family homes, the more affordable southern neighborhoods are seeing fewer offers and smaller overbids than the Sunset. For condos, the $1M to $2M range is where I'm seeing rate increases show up first.

Why HOA dues matter so much right now. Buyers qualify on a total monthly payment. At today's rates, an extra $1,000 a month in HOA dues uses up about the same budget as borrowing roughly $145,000 more. When rates rise, high-HOA buildings feel it first.

What should buyers know right now?

• Waiting for rates to drop has a cost. If rates come back down, the buyers sitting out come back too, and so do 10-offer weekends. Right now, some segments have fewer buyers competing.
• Condos are negotiable in a way single-family homes aren't. Listings past 30 to 60 days, especially in high-HOA buildings, are where you have room. A well-priced condo in a smaller neighborhood building can still go fast.
• If you're waiving contingencies, do your homework first. Read the disclosure package and any seller-provided inspections before you write. That's your protection.
• Run the full monthly number, not just the price. Price, rate, HOA, taxes, and insurance together tell you what you can actually afford.
• If you have RSUs or company stock, talk to a lender early. Lenders I work with tell me buyers with RSU income often qualify because they tend to have strong salaries. Every situation is different and nothing is guaranteed.

If you're starting to look, here's how I work with buyers.

What should sellers know right now?

• Price to today's buyer, not last spring's. The buyer touring your home this month is looking at a higher payment than they were a month ago.
• Presentation still moves the number. Paint and staging are often the difference between a listing that draws multiple offers and one that sits.
• Sitting has a cost. The longer a home is on the market, the more buyers wonder why.
• Single-family homes in strong neighborhoods are still in a seller's market. Q3 inventory was down 21.4% and 87.8% of homes sold over asking (Vanguard Properties, SFAR MLS).
• Condo sellers with high HOAs need a sharper strategy. That's where buyers are pushing back hardest.

Thinking about selling? Here's how I help San Francisco sellers price and prepare.

Real examples from this month

A Mission Bay condo that sat. One of my buyers looked at a two-bedroom in a Mission Bay tower listed at $1,225,000 with HOA dues of $1,244 a month. It had been on the market 95 days. The seller received offers but turned them down because they came in below list price, and the listing came off the market. My buyer decided to keep looking. At today's rates, that HOA cut meaningfully into what my buyer could pay for the home itself.

A Crocker Amazon homeowner deciding on price. A homeowner I'm advising was hoping for $1,300,000. Based on what I'm seeing in the southern neighborhoods, my honest read was closer to $1,200,000, with some painting and staging to get there. Pricing realistically up front is usually what creates competition. Overpricing usually means chasing the market down.

For full stories from deals I've closed, see my case studies.